NSE ScannerResearch · Uptrend pullbacks
Pullback lab: does the 9, 20 or 50 EMA matter?
In plain words
The site's Uptrend pullbacks rule looks for strong uptrend stocks after a sharp 2–3 day fall (RSI(2) below 15). We tested whether waiting for the fall to reach the 9, 20 or 50 EMA does better. Across all stocks it did not: the plain RSI rule did best, and pullbacks down to the 50 EMA did worst. By company size the picture changes: in small caps, a simple 20 EMA touch did better.
10-stock model portfolio, Jan 2023 to 15 Oct 2026: buy at the next open, sell at +8% or after 30 sessions, 0.25% costs per trade. Size groups use today's NSE index lists (Nifty 100, Midcap 150, Smallcap 250) for the whole historical period. This introduces survivorship bias and means the figures are not achievable returns. Past tests do not predict future results.
| Version | Per year | Avg month | Win rate | Worst month | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (to Oct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Site rule: uptrend + RSI(2) below 15 (any depth) | +45.9% | +3.4% | 74.6% | -14.9% | +65.8% | +39.2% | -5.7% | +92.1% |
| RSI(2) below 15 + touched the 9 EMA | +42.6% | +3.3% | 74.2% | -17.0% | +65.8% | +38.1% | -10.0% | +86.0% |
| RSI(2) below 15, stayed above the 20 EMA | +33.4% | +2.6% | 71.2% | -14.7% | +63.2% | +42.1% | -9.5% | +41.8% |
| Touched the 20 EMA (no RSI condition) | +34.1% | +2.8% | 72.3% | -14.3% | +46.0% | +25.3% | -13.8% | +92.6% |
| RSI(2) below 15 + reached the 20 EMA | +23.1% | +1.9% | 69.5% | -11.8% | +39.3% | +24.6% | -14.3% | +47.5% |
| RSI(2) below 15 + reached the 50 EMA | +22.0% | +1.9% | 66.9% | -16.6% | +54.2% | +14.2% | -11.7% | +36.5% |
| Version | Per year | Avg month | Win rate | Worst month | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (to Oct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Site rule: uptrend + RSI(2) below 15 (any depth) | +19.4% | +1.6% | 65% | -11.9% | +40.0% | +23.5% | +15.4% | -1.9% |
| RSI(2) below 15 + touched the 9 EMA | +19.4% | +1.6% | 65% | -11.9% | +40.0% | +23.5% | +15.4% | -1.9% |
| RSI(2) below 15, stayed above the 20 EMA | +13.0% | +1.0% | 68% | -3.7% | +25.3% | +19.0% | +2.7% | +3.6% |
| Touched the 20 EMA (no RSI condition) | +21.0% | +1.7% | 64.9% | -11.2% | +32.7% | +32.4% | +13.6% | +3.1% |
| RSI(2) below 15 + reached the 20 EMA | +12.1% | +1.1% | 62.5% | -12.7% | +24.0% | +18.8% | +4.4% | +0.3% |
| RSI(2) below 15 + reached the 50 EMA | +13.8% | +1.2% | 62.6% | -10.0% | +30.9% | +13.1% | +9.9% | +0.3% |
| Version | Per year | Avg month | Win rate | Worst month | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (to Oct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Site rule: uptrend + RSI(2) below 15 (any depth) | +26.6% | +2.1% | 67.7% | -12.6% | +65.7% | +36.1% | -0.1% | +8.4% |
| RSI(2) below 15 + touched the 9 EMA | +24.6% | +2.0% | 67% | -12.6% | +65.7% | +24.5% | +0.8% | +10.3% |
| RSI(2) below 15, stayed above the 20 EMA | +20.1% | +1.6% | 71.7% | -6.6% | +37.9% | +37.1% | -1.3% | +7.2% |
| Touched the 20 EMA (no RSI condition) | +20.9% | +1.8% | 67.1% | -17.6% | +42.4% | +45.2% | -14.9% | +16.6% |
| RSI(2) below 15 + reached the 20 EMA | +19.4% | +1.6% | 65.7% | -13.7% | +62.6% | +24.4% | -1.2% | -2.3% |
| RSI(2) below 15 + reached the 50 EMA | +8.6% | +0.8% | 59.9% | -10.4% | +28.3% | +19.0% | -2.7% | -8.1% |
| Version | Per year | Avg month | Win rate | Worst month | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (to Oct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Site rule: uptrend + RSI(2) below 15 (any depth) | +38.2% | +2.9% | 71.8% | -17.2% | +111.6% | +25.7% | -11.8% | +45.1% |
| RSI(2) below 15 + touched the 9 EMA | +39.5% | +3.0% | 72.2% | -17.2% | +110.9% | +30.5% | -11.8% | +45.1% |
| RSI(2) below 15, stayed above the 20 EMA | +25.3% | +2.0% | 71.3% | -14.4% | +69.6% | +27.8% | -10.2% | +20.4% |
| Touched the 20 EMA (no RSI condition) | +52.5% | +3.8% | 75% | -14.2% | +84.6% | +62.8% | +2.1% | +61.0% |
| RSI(2) below 15 + reached the 20 EMA | +33.4% | +2.6% | 71.1% | -15.1% | +80.1% | +42.6% | -0.3% | +16.2% |
| RSI(2) below 15 + reached the 50 EMA | +25.5% | +2.1% | 67.8% | -12.1% | +72.1% | +18.6% | -11.5% | +30.8% |
| Version | Per year | Avg month | Win rate | Worst month | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (to Oct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Site rule: uptrend + RSI(2) below 15 (any depth) | +31.9% | +2.6% | 72.2% | -14.3% | +41.2% | +38.6% | -24.6% | +93.2% |
| RSI(2) below 15 + touched the 9 EMA | +26.7% | +2.3% | 71.3% | -15.9% | +41.2% | +20.0% | -25.9% | +94.8% |
| RSI(2) below 15, stayed above the 20 EMA | +43.2% | +3.2% | 72.8% | -11.0% | +77.4% | +56.5% | +4.2% | +34.3% |
| Touched the 20 EMA (no RSI condition) | +41.8% | +3.2% | 72.7% | -14.2% | +60.1% | +18.9% | +4.6% | +88.0% |
| RSI(2) below 15 + reached the 20 EMA | +18.7% | +1.7% | 67.7% | -11.5% | +21.3% | +23.8% | -19.7% | +58.7% |
| RSI(2) below 15 + reached the 50 EMA | +11.9% | +1.2% | 65.2% | -14.8% | +28.0% | +8.8% | -17.8% | +33.7% |
What the versions mean
- RSI(2) below 15: the 2-day RSI has dropped below 15, meaning a sharp short fall.
- Touched an EMA: the day's low came within 0.5% of that exponential moving average and the close stayed above it.
- Reached the 20 / 50 EMA: the lowest low of the last 3 days came within 1% of that average.
- Uptrend: price above rising 150- and 200-day averages, at least 30% above its 1-year low and within 25% of its high.
See today's stocks on the scanner (Uptrend pullbacks, with a large / mid / small cap filter) or the setup lab.